The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued its climate outlook for the upcoming 2026 monsoon season, warning of potential urban flooding in major cities across Sindh, Punjab, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. According to the alert, despite forecasted below-normal rainfall across most parts of the country from July to September, the threat of floods remains high.

Below-Normal Rainfall and Agricultural Impact According to the details released by the Met Office, most regions of the country are expected to receive below-normal rainfall between July and September. DG Met Office Dr. Muhammad Afzal stated that due to this deficit in rainfall, agriculture and standing crops could be severely affected. Additionally, this shift in weather conditions is expected to trigger an increase in seasonal diseases.

Threat of Urban Flooding and Flash Floods DG Met Office Dr. Muhammad Afzal explicitly clarified that less rainfall does not mean the threat of floods is averted; rather, the risk of urban flooding remains constantly present in various regions. Heavy monsoon spells are expected to cause severe urban flooding in the major cities of Sindh, Punjab, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which could disrupt urban infrastructure.

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Regional Outlook and Heat Stress Warnings The meteorological report indicates that while most parts of the country will see below-average rains, Kashmir, upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Gilgit-Baltistan are predicted to receive above-normal rainfall. Furthermore, temperatures across the country are likely to remain above normal from July to September. Particularly, northern Punjab and western Gilgit-Baltistan will experience intense heat, leading to high chances of heat stress.

Water Scarcity and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods The report warned that below-normal rainfall in Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan could escalate the risks of severe water scarcity. Conversely, the upper northern regions are expected to experience above-normal temperatures, which is predicted to significantly increase the threat of floods caused by rapidly melting glaciers and bursting glacial lakes.